Elliott Wave Analysis for Avalanche (AVAX) – Current Price: $34.16
Based on the Elliott Wave Theory, we can project the current and future movements of AVAX given the price of $34.16. Here’s the breakdown:
Current Market Context
AVAX is in the middle of a bullish impulse cycle, likely transitioning between Wave 3 (impulsive wave) and Wave 4 (corrective wave).
The ongoing momentum and recent price action suggest a strong potential for a continuation toward higher levels.
Wave Count
Wave 1:
Movement: Initial rise from $12.00 to $22.00.
Characteristics: Moderate volume, initiating the bullish cycle.
Wave 2:
Movement: Correction to $15.50.
Characteristics: Typical ABC correction, respecting the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement.
Wave 3:
Movement: Ongoing, targeting $42.00–$45.00.
Characteristics: Strong volume and momentum, with Wave 3 typically being the most powerful.
Wave 4:
Projection: Expected correction to $30.00–$32.00.
Characteristics: Consolidation phase before the final impulse (Wave 5).
Wave 5:
Projection: Final rise targeting $48.00–$50.00.
Characteristics: Driven by market optimism and FOMO.
Fibonacci Projections
Fibonacci retracement and extension levels are calculated based on recent highs and lows:
Wave 3 Target:
1.618 Fibonacci extension from Wave 1 projects a target of $42.00–$45.00.
Wave 4 Retracement:
Expected to retrace to $30.00–$32.00, respecting the 0.236 or 0.382 retracement levels.
Wave 5 Target:
2.236 Fibonacci extension suggests $48.00–$50.00 as the end of the cycle.
Entry Points
Short-Term Entry (Wave 3 Continuation):
Entry Zone: $34.00–$35.00.
Stop Loss: Below $33.00.
Take Profit: $42.00–$45.00.
Wave 4 Correction Entry:
Entry Zone: $30.00–$32.00.
Stop Loss: Below $29.00.
Take Profit: $48.00–$50.00.
Probability of Scenarios
Wave 3 Reaching $42.00–$45.00:
Probability: 70%.
Reason: Strong momentum and bullish sentiment.
Wave 4 Correction to $30.00–$32.00:
Probability: 60%.
Reason: Typical consolidation after an impulsive Wave 3.
Wave 5 Reaching $48.00–$50.00:
Probability: 75%.
Reason: Historical patterns and Fibonacci extension alignment.
Risks and Considerations
Market Volatility:
Sudden market changes could disrupt the wave structure.
Invalidation Level:
A drop below $29.00 would invalidate the current Elliott Wave pattern.
Conclusion
AVAX is currently bullish, with potential for further upside in Wave 3 targeting $42.00–$45.00. A correction to $30.00–$32.00 (Wave 4) would provide an ideal re-entry for Wave 5, which targets $48.00–$50.00. Traders should use appropriate stop-loss levels and monitor market conditions closely.