Bitcoin (BTC/USDT Perpetual Futures) on the 1-hour timeframe.
Current Price: 96,924.7 USDT.
Recent Movements:
The market is showing a sideways movement with increased volatility.
A slight recovery is visible after the low around November 27.
- Key Technical Observations
Trend Structure:
On the 1-hour chart, the market appears to be in a corrective phase (likely Elliott Wave 4 or a complex correction like a flat or triangle).
Higher highs and higher lows suggest a potential breakout soon.
Indicators:
Moving Averages (EMA): The short-term EMAs (e.g., 9/21) appear to be tilting upwards, indicating a potential bullish bias.
- Elliott Wave Analysis
Based on the visible wave structure:
The market is likely in a corrective wave (probably Wave 4 or B in a bullish trend).
An impulsive upward breakout may soon occur, targeting either Wave 5 (in an uptrend) or a retest of resistance levels.
- Fibonacci Analysis
To identify potential entry and exit points:
Using the last swing low (87,000 USDT) and the recent swing high (97,000 USDT):
0.618 (Golden Ratio): 91,000-92,000 USDT (a potential buy zone on pullbacks).
0.786: 89,000 USDT (deeper retracement, attractive for long positions).
Extension Levels: If the market continues to rise, targets could be 100,000 USDT (1.272) and 102,000 USDT (1.618).
- Support and Resistance Levels
Key Support Levels:
94,000 USDT (recent low).
92,000 USDT (Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level).
Key Resistance Levels:
97,000 USDT (current high).
100,000 USDT (psychological resistance).
- Potential Trading Strategies
Strategy 1: Long Position on Pullback
Entry: On a pullback to the 0.618 Fibonacci level (91,000-92,000 USDT).
Take-Profit:
Partial profits at 97,000 USDT.
Remaining profits at 100,000-102,000 USDT.
Stop-Loss: Below the recent low at 89,000 USDT.
Strategy 2: Breakout Trade
Entry: After a confirmed breakout above 97,000 USDT with strong volume.
Take-Profit:
First target at 100,000 USDT.
Second target at 102,000 USDT (1.618 Fibonacci extension).
Stop-Loss: Below 96,000 USDT (last resistance turns into support).
Strategy 3: Short Position on Rejection
Entry: If the price fails to break above 97,000 USDT and shows clear reversal signals (e.g., Doji candles or Shooting Star).
Take-Profit:
First target at 92,000 USDT.
Second target at 89,000 USDT.
Stop-Loss: Above 98,000 USDT.
- Position Management
Leverage: A 10x leverage (as seen in your ADAUSDT position) is aggressive, so ensure tight stop-loss levels.
Risk Management: Limit risk to 1-2% of total capital per trade.
Trailing Stop: Use a trailing stop to secure profits if the market moves strongly in your favor.
Table of Possible Scenarios
Scenario Entry Take-Profit Stop-Loss Remarks
Pullback Long 91,000-92,000 USDT 97,000 / 100,000 USDT < 89,000 USDT Enter on Fibonacci 0.618 retracement.
Breakout Long > 97,000 USDT 100,000 / 102,000 USDT < 96,000 USDT Wait for a confirmed breakout.
Rejection Short 96,800-97,000 USDT 92,000 / 89,000 USDT > 98,000 USDT Short at resistance rejection.
Conclusion
Watch the 91,000-92,000 USDT area for potential long positions or the 97,000 USDT level for a breakout trade. For short-term opportunities, consider a short trade if the price gets rejected at resistance. Always manage your risk carefully and monitor the market for confirmation before entering a trade.
Disclaimer
The analysis provided above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency and other financial markets are highly volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Any trading or investment decisions you make are solely your responsibility.
You should conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions. Trading with leverage and derivatives carries additional risk, including the potential for total loss of capital. We assume no liability for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of the information provided.
Trade responsibly and only invest capital you can afford to lose.
