Elliott Wave Analysis
Based on the visible price action, we can observe the following potential wave structure:
Wave Structure Analysis:
Wave 1:
The initial impulsive move likely started from 225 USDT to 236 USDT, marking Wave 1.
This move shows clear bullish momentum as buyers stepped in strongly.
Wave 2 (Corrective):
The retracement from 236 USDT back down to 230 USDT appears to be a corrective Wave 2.
This retracement aligns with the Fibonacci 50% level, which is typical for corrective waves.
Wave 3:
Currently, the market appears to be in Wave 3, often the most impulsive and extended wave.
The rally from 230 USDT back to 240 USDT suggests strong buying interest, supported by volume.
Wave 4 (Potential Future Correction):
After Wave 3 completes (potential target between 242–245 USDT), we could see a corrective Wave 4.
Wave 4 usually retraces between 23.6%–38.2% of Wave 3. If Wave 3 ends at 245 USDT, potential Wave 4 targets range between 237–240 USDT.
Wave 5:
Wave 5 could target 250–255 USDT, driven by the final leg of bullish momentum before a larger corrective structure begins.
Key Elliott Wave Levels:
Wave 1 High: 236 USDT.
Wave 2 Low: 230 USDT.
Projected Wave 3 Target: 242–245 USDT.
Projected Wave 4 Retracement: 237–240 USDT.
Wave 5 Target: 250–255 USDT.
Fibonacci Analysis
Fibonacci Retracement Levels (Pullbacks):
Retracements are used to identify potential support zones during corrections:
Wave 2 Retracement: The move from 236 USDT to 230 USDT retraced 50% of Wave 1, which is typical for corrective waves.
Potential Wave 4 Retracement: After Wave 3 completes, the price might retrace between 23.6% (237 USDT) and 38.2% (240 USDT) of Wave 3.
Fibonacci Extension Levels (Targets):
Extensions are used to project potential targets for impulsive waves:
Wave 3 Projections:
100% Extension of Wave 1: 242 USDT (minimum target for Wave 3).
161.8% Extension of Wave 1: 250 USDT (common for Wave 3 if it is extended).
Wave 5 Projections (Final Wave):
Using Wave 1 and Wave 3 as references, potential Wave 5 targets are:
100% of Wave 1 added to Wave 4: 250 USDT.
161.8% Extension: 255 USDT (maximum extension before reversal).
Support and Resistance Zones
Support Levels:
237 USDT: Strong support from recent pullback and Fibonacci 23.6% level.
230 USDT: Key level where buyers aggressively stepped in (Fibonacci 50%).
Resistance Levels:
242 USDT: Minor resistance at the current price action.
245 USDT: Strong resistance where sellers may enter.
250–255 USDT: Fibonacci extension levels and potential Wave 5 completion zone.
Momentum and Volume Analysis
Momentum Indicators:
RSI is likely approaching the overbought zone, suggesting caution for extended longs near 242–245 USDT.
Bullish divergence on the lower timeframes indicates strength in the current trend.
Volume Confirmation:
Rising volume during impulsive waves (Wave 1 and Wave 3) validates the bullish structure.
Declining volume during corrections (Wave 2) aligns with healthy market behavior.
Trade Setups
Long Position
Entry Levels:
On a pullback to 236–237 USDT (Fibonacci 23.6–38.2% retracement of Wave 3).
Alternatively, on a confirmed breakout above 242 USDT with strong volume.
Take-Profit (TP) Levels:
First Target: 242 USDT (Wave 3 completion).
Second Target: 250 USDT (Wave 5 extension).
Stretch Target: 255 USDT (Wave 5 maximum extension).
Stop-Loss (SL):
Below 235 USDT for entries around 236 USDT.
Below 240 USDT for breakout entries above 242 USDT.
Risk-Reward:
R:R around 2:1 or 3:1, depending on entry point.
Short Position
Entry Levels:
After rejection at 242–245 USDT (resistance zone and likely end of Wave 3 or Wave 5).
Alternatively, below 236 USDT (breakdown of Wave 4 support).
Take-Profit (TP) Levels:
First Target: 237 USDT (Wave 4 support).
Second Target: 230 USDT (Wave 2 low).
Stop-Loss (SL):
Above 245 USDT for shorts near resistance.
Above 240 USDT for breakdown trades below 236 USDT.
Risk-Reward:
R:R around 1.5:1 or 2:1 for shorter-term trades.
Summary of Key Scenarios with Probabilities
Bullish Continuation:
Scenario: Wave 3 extends to 242–245 USDT, with a potential Wave 5 targeting 250–255 USDT.
Probability: 70% (supported by momentum, volume, and Fibonacci extensions).
Bearish Rejection:
Scenario: Strong rejection at 242–245 USDT triggers a corrective Wave 4 back to 237–240 USDT or lower.
Probability: 55% (depends on resistance strength and overbought conditions).
Pullback to Support (Long Setup):
Scenario: Pullback to 236–237 USDT offers a buying opportunity for a continuation to 242–250 USDT.
Probability: 65% (likely if volume remains supportive and no major breakdown occurs).
Breakout Above 242 USDT (Bullish Scenario):
Scenario: Breakout above 242 USDT confirms continuation to 250–255 USDT.
Probability: 60–70% (if breakout is accompanied by volume surge).
Short Setup (Rejection at Resistance):
Scenario: Rejection near 245 USDT leads to a decline toward 230 USDT.
Probability: 50–55% (reliant on failure to break resistance and reduced bullish momentum).
Disclaimer
The analysis provided above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency and other financial markets are highly volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Any trading or investment decisions you make are solely your responsibility.
You should conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions. Trading with leverage and derivatives carries additional risk, including the potential for total loss of capital. We assume no liability for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of the information provided.
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