BTC

Leo

Elliott Wave Analysis

Movement: The start of the uptrend, BTC rises from ~$92,000 to $94,000.
Characteristics: Moderate buying volume, signaling the beginning of a new impulse cycle.
Wave 2:

Movement: A correction down to ~$92,000.
Characteristics: Typical ABC correction where the trend pauses briefly.
Wave 3:

Movement: BTC rallies from $92,000 to $97,000.
Characteristics: The strongest impulse wave driven by higher volume and momentum.
Target Zone: Between $95,000–$98,000.
Wave 4:

Movement: Expected correction from $97,000 to ~$89,000–$90,000.
Characteristics: Consolidation phase, often marked by profit-taking.
Key Support Zone: Fibonacci retracement at 0.382 ($90,000).
Wave 5:

Projection: BTC may rise from $89,000–$90,000 to ~$105,000.
Characteristics: Final impulse wave driven by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and high buying pressure.
Target Zone: $100,000–$105,000.
Fibonacci Retracement Analysis
Fibonacci levels are calculated based on the high of $105,000 (expected Wave 5 peak) and the low of $89,000 (Wave 4 bottom).

0.236 ($99,300): Minor support/resistance during small corrections.
0.382 ($95,900): Key support during deeper pullbacks.
0.500 ($92,000): Psychological support, often a trend reversal zone.
0.618 ($89,700): Major support, likely the base for a new uptrend.
0.786 ($88,000): Final defense before a bearish market shift.
Entry and Exit Zones
Long Entry Zone 1 (Yellow):

Range: $92,000–$93,000.
Reason: Short-term entry opportunity during ongoing Wave 3.
Stop Loss: Below $91,000.
Take Profit: $98,000.
Long Entry Zone 2 (Orange):

Range: $89,000–$90,000.
Reason: Ideal entry point at the bottom of Wave 4 for Wave 5.
Stop Loss: Below $88,000.
Take Profit: $100,000–$105,000.
Short-Term Take Profit:

Range: $98,000–$100,000.
Reason: Likely consolidation phase after Wave 5.
Wave 5 Target Zone:

Range: $105,000.
Reason: Based on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and historical Elliott Wave behavior.
Probability of Scenarios
Reaching $105,000 (Wave 5):

Probability: 75%.
Reason: Strong momentum and increasing institutional interest.
Correction to $89,000 (Wave 4):

Probability: 60%.
Reason: Typical retracement after a strong Wave 3 impulse.
Risks and Considerations
Volatility:

BTC’s high volatility could lead to faster or slower wave completion than expected.
External Factors:

Macro events (e.g., interest rate changes, regulations) could disrupt the analysis.
Invalidation:

A drop below $88,000 would invalidate the current Elliott Wave structure.
Conclusion
The chart indicates a strong bullish structure, with the next major move expected to take BTC to $105,000. Fibonacci retracements provide reliable support zones for entries and exits. Traders should consider the correction around $89,000 as an ideal entry point for Wave 5 while managing risks with appropriate stop-loss levels.